Democratic nominee is new President for foreseeable future / by kevin murray

In the last six Presidential elections, each President has gone on to win a second term.  The last time his happened was at the beginning of our republic with Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe, each serving two terms for his country.  In all elections, incumbents have huge advantages and this recent trend of two-term Presidents in America should continue.  Of our last three Presidents, two have been Democrats, and one has been Republican.  Offhand, that doesn't sound like any real dominance by the Democrats but those results are deceptive.  In 2000, Republican Bush barely won in a disputed election and his follow-up in 2004, was also very close.  In fact, if in either of those elections, Bush had lost Florida he would have lost the election.  The most important trend is that the Democrats have so many electoral votes that are solidly in the democratic camp that their chances are losing any upcoming Presidential elections are slim.  The following eighteen states and DC have voted democratic in each of the last six elections and they are in alphabetical order:


                California             55 electoral votes

                Connecticut        7

                D.C.                        3

                Delaware             3

                Hawaii                   4

                Illinois                   20

                Maine                   4

                Maryland             10


                Michigan              16

                Minnesota          10

                New Jersey        14

                New York            29

                Oregon                 7

                Pennsylvania     20

                Rhode Island      4

                Vermont              3

                Washington        12

                Wisconsin            10


                Total:                     242 electoral votes


Additionally, the following eight states in alphabetical order have voted Democratic in the last two elections:


                Colorado              9 electoral votes

                Florida                  29

                Iowa                      6

                Nevada                                6

                New Hampshire 4

                New Mexico      5

                Ohio                      18

                Virginia                 13


                Total:                     90 electoral votes


The President needs but 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency, so it is a long shot to believe that the Democratic nominee could not continue to win enough of the electoral votes of the democratic leaning states to win the election.  In fact, the probability of the Democrats not winning at least 28 electoral votes is very slim.


While, no doubt, the Republicans are quite aware of these numbers and perhaps believe a strategy of running a Republican from a Democratic stronghold state such as New Jersey might succeed, the fact of the matter is that Romney was unable to carry Massachusetts and therefore it is quite conceivable or even probable that someone like Christie would be unable to carry New Jersey.


The bottom line is that the Republicans don’t stand a realistic chance against any Democratic candidate that doesn't carry a great deal of negative baggage, therefore any Presidential election is the Democrats to lose and they are a prohibitive favorite over any candidate from the Republican party.  In fact, there isn't any real reason to expect the Republicans to win the Presidency over the next twenty years at a minimum.  The Republicans are left to fight for governorships, senate seats, and house seats; the executive position is simply a bridge too far.


In regards to the highest position in our land, the United States has become much like one-party states of repressive countries, the result is foreknown, and inevitable.