Inflation is in the stock market / by kevin murray

The United States has gone through periods of time of double-digit inflation, but this has not occurred since 1980, and apparently despite everything that the Federal Reserve has tried in recent years, to get inflation up to their desired target rate of 2%, inflation has remained quiescent, and apparently typically under that target.  Yet, this seems rather strange in consideration that the Federal Reserve has been increasing the M1 money supply (which is essentially money in circulation plus checkable deposits in banks) at an unprecedented rate, ostensibly because of COVID-19 and to preclude a recession. 

 

The classic definition of inflation, is too much money chasing too few goods; so if we take the government at its word, that inflation is not really occurring within the economy, despite the money supply having increased at a very explosive rate, then a good detective would want to investigate other areas of the economy and those industries in which ready money plays an integral part.  One of those areas that would fit the bill would have to be the stock market, in which, the United States, a country that hasn't produced an impressive growth rate in regards to its GDP in years, has seen, nevertheless, most of its stock indexes hit new records.

 

Quite clearly, when institutions and people that already have more money than they know what to do with, get even more capital in their hands, they very well might have a strong inclination not to risk their money in that which doesn't really need their investment, especially when such also requires time, concentration and monitoring, but might well prefer to speculate instead in something passive, such as equities, in which, the commitment of funds to equities, is one of those activities, that requires little personal involvement of time or energy, while also being quite liquid, and to its credit has historically provided good returns; so that with the cost of money so being invested being at historic lows, provides to those having that money and thereby looking for a safe home, a place that appears to be conducive to making that easy money.

 

So then, the reality is that the printing of massive amounts of money that goes into the hands of those that have more than enough of it, is quite logically simply going to be funneled into stock markets, thereby signifying that the inflation that this government can't seem to find, is because they aren't looking in the right places; and the proof of this theory will occur, when that accelerated money supply growth terminates, thereby ending the euphoria of that stock market, for when it comes time to pay the piper, those that have speculated in the same sphere, will all strongly desire to cash out at the very same time.

 

While there are all sorts of theories about how much a given stock is worth, the real worth of any stock, comes down to the give and take of those that speculate within that market; and when the easy money is flowing, stocks are going to inevitably rise; whereas when the tide does turn, and the spigot has been turned off, then stocks are subsequently going to run very, very dry.